We’re wrapping up our Oscar predictions with the ones they treat as most important (to be honest- our favorite stuff is in Part III): acting, directing, and Best Picture.The 91st annual Academy Awards air tonight on ABC.
Part IV: Big Stuff
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
We’d love to see Amy Adams finally take home a statue, but her turn in Vice wasn’t nealy as demanding as some of her past roles, and it’s the same among these other nominees. This category is nearly 100% identical to whomever wins the Golden Globe, so one to beat is Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
We’re just glad Sam Elliot’s moustache is making an appearance this year at the ceremony. It would be spectacular if the veteran actor received it this year but we have a feeling Mahershala Ali, because he’s so trendy right now. He’s had a monster year and he’s the one actor that nearly everyone agrees upon as being consistently good in everything he does.
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
We want Olivia Colman to take this one. She was absolutely brilliant and was able to flash between this over-the-top, childlike delight to a real hollowness so quickly. And she’s long overdue for recognition here in the States. But it looks like Glenn Close has snatched up a lot of awards season, which is usually an indicator of who takes the Oscar home.
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
It would be great if Willem Dafoe just swooped in to grab this one, but this is an entirely predictable category and Christian Bale will walk away with it. He was his usual entertaining self in the Vice and it’s probably the closest the Academy can come to giving Vice Best Picture while claiming they’re not political based on content.
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Need we say more? We want Spike Lee to win this one, but Alfonso Cuaron is the frontrunner this year. Yorgos Lanthimos is our dark horse, but technically driven movies tend to take this category and Cuaron fits that agenda.
A Star Is Born
Nominees for Cinematography and Directing are typically indicators of who will take Best Picture and that being said, this race is between The Favourite and Roma. We wouldn’t be unhappy with either, but the former was more experimental, just a little more off-the-cuff, and brought back a bunch of old school techniques that are underappreciated nowadays. Also, delightful. Straight up delightful. Roma also has the whole streaming thing working against it, so there’s that. We also both think BlacKkKlansman is one of the most important movies this year, as well as one of the best, but the Academy has a history of nominating politically charged directors and movies without awarding them.
Now, if the Academy is really making good on recognizing bigger budget movies, Black Panther will take this one. We here at JKLMovieBlog wouldn’t be opposed but we know a lot of people won’t be happy with it and they’ll think the Academy is just pandering or lowering their standards (“Just how do you compare the ART between that and something like The Favourite? One is obviously of more value”). First off, let’s be real, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are bigger sins than Black Panther because of what they failed to do. There’s nothing out of this world, or extraordinary, or technically challenging to them. They pander without challenging. On the other hand, Black Panther took a genre, turned it into something meaningful beyond the end of the world, gave it purpose, gave it richness. Its presentation provoked thought about the social and economic issues we have today instead of just touching upon it or using it as a backdrop. Architecturally, it caused people to take a step back and recognize what made a good story and what made a good character in a comic book movie, instead of just accepting all the mediocre ones out there. There’s a reason why it resonated with so many people and made over a billion dollars and that deserves to be recognized.
Not that a billion dollars should be automatically be nominated for Best Picture. Let’s not nominate Aquaman any time soon, but Black Panther absolutely deserves mentioned among the best movies of the year.